Recently, reporters visited many places to learn that the prices of industrial raw materials such as industrial metals, textile and chemical fiber have risen sharply in recent years, and commodities such as iron ore have reached a high for many years. Many industries have been affected, especially some small and medium-sized and micro enterprises have lost money under the two sides of upstream price rise and difficult price increase downstream, and the dilemma may continue to intensify. According to the industry research, under the influence of international monetary policy and other factors, the price of big raw materials may not be able to be corrected rapidly in a short time, and the upstream influence will be gradually transferred to downstream end products. To help enterprises build a long-term mechanism to resist the risk of raw material price fluctuation, and to hedge the impact of rising raw material prices, many efforts should be made to cope with it.

The price rise is too fierce for the enterprise to take a surprise

The main force of Shanghai copper rose to 70000 yuan per ton at the end of February, a nine-year high, and the price of several household appliances such as downstream refrigerators rose by more than 10%; The price of the whole textile fiber has been adjusted. Compared with the low price in 2020, the price of spandex has risen nearly 80%; Chemical giant Wacker announced that the global price rise of 10 to 20%, 107 rubber and other silicone products prices rose 13 rounds; The price of industrial steel tubes and copper plates has pushed the highest level in 2011. The prices of other commodities such as nickel, tin, aluminum and iron ore have all soared to the high point of many years. The "general rise" and "soaring" of industrial raw materials have caught many enterprises unprepared.

In fact, the price of industrial raw materials has been on the rise. Liu Shikun, vice general manager of Anhui noble Electrical Group Co., Ltd., said that in October last year, the company felt that the price of raw materials was rising rapidly, while the price of cold rolled steel plates and foams rose rapidly. The cost of the whole machine has risen 20% this year, with a serious loss“ At the end of last year, raw materials began to rise, and after the Spring Festival, the increase was even greater. Aluminum prices rose more than 2000 yuan a ton, up more than 10 percent, and this cost increased by nearly 3 million yuan. " Liu Shikun said.

Shi Yuliang, general machinery purchasing director in Jilin Province, said steel rose by 340 yuan a ton, the monthly purchase cost increased by 500000 yuan, and copper and plastics also rose by about 20%.

"Affected by the substantial increase in raw material prices, upstream enterprises are better than downstream enterprises, and those on the regulations are better than those under the regulations." Niuliutao, head of Anhui Provincial Economic and information department, said that some enterprises will not make profits this year. If the product brand is not strong enough, some enterprises may lose users or even face the risk of elimination and exit. The market will gradually focus on the head enterprises.

In many fields such as textile, chemical industry and electric motor, some small and medium-sized enterprises are in trouble due to the soaring cost. In Jinjiang, Fujian, many enterprises have reported that the rising price of raw materials and the rising labor and transportation costs, and the production profit tends to be thin, and some enterprises are forced to abandon orders. Liu said that the company is now actively controlling orders to stop losses. About 20% of the small and medium-sized supply chain companies and supporting manufacturers around the company have chosen to stop business.

"General rise" of industrial raw materials due to multiple reasons

Industry insiders pointed out that developed countries such as Europe and America adopt more radical fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with the slowdown in epidemic prevention and control situation, and other factors such as demand recovery, to jointly promote the price rise of raw materials.

Zhu Jianbo, chairman of Jining keybang Chemical Co., Ltd., said that the price rise of raw materials is related to the fiscal drainage of European and American countries to stimulate economic collective financial drainage, and the increase of money supply increases global inflation. Zhang Hongxin, vice general manager of Zhejiang Wolong Electric Drive Group Co., Ltd., analyzes that, at the root, the price rise is caused by inflation. For example, a series of rescue plans in the United States will be transmitted to the futures market, which will slowly drive the price of raw materials to rise.

Li Xun Jun, an analyst with Shandong Zhuo Chuang Information Co., Ltd., believes that the chemical products have a bull market after the Spring Festival, and the rise of crude oil plays a leading role“ The high impact of crude oil has strong driving effect on near oil end products, and aromatics, olefins and other products are likely to rise generally. " Li said that the cold weather in the United States has led to large-scale production reduction and production stoppage of local chemical enterprises, and the shortage of market expectations has also promoted the crazy rise of the chemical products market.

With the epidemic under control, the global economy bottomed back, consumer demand recovered, orders surged but stocked. Niu Nutao believes that the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic prevention and control situation has improved, and the driving effect of market demand is one of the reasons for the rise in commodity prices.

Zhongshe, vice general manager of Guangdong aimigao Furniture Co., Ltd., said that the company has increased orders sharply since the second half of last year, adding production lines. But the raw materials are very tight. Taking the imported pine as an example, the stock is only half a month.

Several enterprise leaders said that the price of raw materials fell after the Spring Festival last year. Many enterprises are more cautious this year. The raw materials are purchased and used as soon as possible. It is unexpected that the prices of multiple raw materials suddenly increased after the year. Dengzijin, deputy general manager of general manager of Wuhu Zhongji Ruijiang Automobile Co., Ltd., said that state-owned enterprises have clear index requirements for debt ratio and inventory value, and generally not allow too much reserves.

In addition, affected by the rebound of domestic epidemic at the beginning of the year, many enterprises responded to the government's call for the local new year. Linyonghong, director of Jinjiang Bureau of industry and information technology of Fujian Province, said that more than 53% of the employees outside the province stayed in the factory for the new year. Therefore, the enterprises started early and started up sufficiently after the festival, which led to a sharp increase in demand for industrial production in a short period.

The epidemic situation leads to the difficulty of container turnover, and the increase of logistics cost promotes the price increase of raw materials. Zhang Hongxin said the sea freight price rise is higher, different regions have 8 times, there are 10 times higher“ There are differences in epidemic prevention situation at home and abroad. The containers can be turned around in international trade. Now China is the first to recover and turn into one-way circulation, and the containers are short. " He believes that China international shipping container Co., Ltd. has a very large number of orders, and it is expected that the container turnover will return to normal in the second half of this year.

SMEs encounter difficulties and inflation risks or appear

The reporter visited and found that the rising price of raw materials has brought great impact on the heavy assets and labor-intensive traditional manufacturing industries such as household appliances, textile and machinery manufacturing, and the high-end manufacturing enterprises with high added value are not affected. According to the analysis, the leading enterprises and large enterprises have abundant capital flow and strong risk resistance. They can hedge the rising of raw materials prices by extending the industrial chain, purchasing futures, hoarding raw materials and following the price rise, and even become the beneficiaries of the raw material price; The small and micro enterprises engaged in processing and finished products are directly affected by the price rise of raw materials, mainly reflected in the reduction of profits, even "opening the door and losing more". If the rising trend of raw material price continues, a number of enterprises may be closed or closed down.

Some enterprises have been close to the limit of the cost rise. Shi Yuliang, purchasing director of Jilin general machinery (Group) Co., Ltd., said that the company signed a long-term contract with the main engine plant and had to reduce prices to some extent every year. With the cost of raw materials increased greatly, traditional manufacturing enterprises with original profit margin less than 10% are struggling.

Mahonglin, general manager of Chongqing Dajiang National Precision Machinery Co., Ltd., said that since February, the additional expenditure on the price increase of steel has reached 2million yuan, which is equivalent to the profit of last year's every month. The company has made losses, but in order to keep the order, it can only be hard to continue to produce production.

Under the "price rise tide", the impact is not limited to the enterprise side, but also may lead to inflation risk and affect the end consumption. The enterprises surveyed generally said that the current product price increase is not universal, but the price rise of raw materials will surely be gradually transmitted to the downstream. It is likely to spread to various consumer areas such as daily use in the future, which will cause inflation. Reporter interview learned that at present, some food enterprises have implemented flexible price adjustment for products, and household appliances enterprises also generally adjust prices. In addition, some enterprises raise prices in disguised way by reducing and not reducing prices.

Price is short-term or difficult to recall multiple concerns of enterprises

At present, when the price rise of raw materials can be recalled has become the focus of attention. From the perspective of CITIC Securities and other industry, China's industrial metal consumption accounts for the highest proportion. In the medium and long term, China's demand end is the core contradiction of price change. The current price has fully reflected the expectation, and the space for industrial metal price rise may be relatively limited.

There are also many insiders who believe that the rise of non-ferrous metals, precious metals and other raw materials is due to the fluctuation of international political situation, the introduction of quantitative monetary easing policies by the United States and other countries, and the imbalance of supply and demand in international and domestic markets. In addition to the contradiction between supply and demand in the market, because of the continuous release of "water" by all countries around the world, a large number of capital enters commodities, which has become an important reason for the rapid rise of prices. In the short term, such factors can not be eliminated temporarily, and the trend of high-level operation of raw materials may be difficult to reverse quickly.

There are multiple concerns about this.

Raw materials continue to increase prices or high-level operation, production or production stop are "in and out of the evidence.". Zhongshe, vice general manager of Guangdong Aigao Furniture Co., Ltd., said that if the raw materials continue to rise, the product will have to raise the price, but may lead to the loss of order; And continue production, will also lead to losses, "in and out of the way.".

Liu said that may was traditionally the peak season for home appliances sales, and expected to see a drop in the price of raw materials at this node. If it is still at a high level, it will have a serious impact on the whole industry, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and will hurt the confidence of enterprises.

Shuffle or accelerate the industry. Gaoshiwang, director of the industry development department of China Chamber of Commerce for import and export of mechanical and electrical products, said that in this round of crisis, enterprises faced challenges of rising raw materials, logistics prices and exchange rate improvement, which was the shuffle of low-end and excess capacity of the former household appliances industry, and should help enterprises upgrade their industries. Pengyuanyuan, general manager of Chongqing Jiangchuan chemical (Group) Co., Ltd., said that the chemical industry has entered the shuffle stage, and the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises is difficult. If they can not effectively deal with it, many enterprises are facing bankruptcy, and they are eager to upgrade their industries.

Wu Wenquan, general manager of Heng'an (Zhejiang) household necessities Co., Ltd., said that the current price increase of raw materials has caused pressure on the business of enterprises. Once the company encounters tight silver root, the cash flow of the enterprise will be more limited and become "worse". Large enterprises may be able to carry it, but small and medium-sized enterprises will be difficult to overcome this difficulty.

Multiple measures to hedge the impact of price rise

In view of the situation that the raw material price may still be kept at high level in the short term, many policy measures are put forward in the industry, and precise measures are proposed from strengthening the balance of international supply chain.

We will improve the mechanism of price supervision and price balance of bulk raw materials, and resolutely crack down on disorderly price increase; At the same time, we should strengthen our purchasing and supply capacity in the field of international commodities, and ensure the safety and stability of domestic supply chain. In view of the actual difficulties brought by the price rise of raw materials to the enterprise operation, many industry insiders suggest that relevant departments of the state subsidize the prices of non-ferrous metals and other major raw materials in a timely and appropriate manner to ensure the smooth operation of key pillar industries.

We will introduce preferential policies such as tax and tax, and help enterprises reduce production and operation costs. Dengzijin, deputy general manager of general manager of Anhui Wuhu Zhongji Ruijiang Automobile Co., Ltd., suggested that business tax, value-added tax and individual tax can be reduced in stages, and a number of targeted loans can be accurately put into the real enterprises.

It is necessary to guide enterprises to use futures hedging function to lock forward costs, so as to reduce the risk of uncertainty to a lower level. At present, this risk hedging tool is widely used in medium and large enterprises and listed companies, which also hedge the impact of the price rise of raw materials to a certain extent. However, some enterprises are not familiar with hedging. It is suggested to guide them to learn and use them to hedge the risks brought by the rising cost.